On The Money: Trump winning farm vote despite pinch of trade policies, pandemic | Pelosi says Democrats would fast-track ObamaCare, COVID-19 aid next year | Dow closes up more than 400 points on eve of Election Day

On The Money: Trump winning farm vote despite pinch of trade policies, pandemic | Pelosi says Democrats would fast-track ObamaCare, COVID-19 aid next year | Dow closes up more than 400 points on eve of Election Day

Happy Monday and welcome back to On The Money, where we’re reminding you to get some rest before whatever happens tomorrow. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com, njagoda@thehill.com and nelis@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane, @NJagoda and @NivElis.

THE BIG DEAL—Trump winning farm vote despite pinch of trade policies, pandemic: After a chaotic several years for the agriculture industry, many farmers say they will vote for President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden leads Trump in survey of Texas voters from left-leaning pollster On The Trail: Making sense of Super Poll Sunday Trump rebukes FBI for investigating supporters accused of harassing Biden bus MORE again, even as his policies have hurt their bottom line.

  • Trump’s trade wars with China, Canada and Mexico rocked the industry, closing markets for farmers and pushing commodity prices down further. 
  • His pendulum swing on ethanol policies has also irked corn growers, while the coronavirus pandemic has delivered the latest gut punch.

Yet despite his support among growers being tested over the last four years, Trump is still expected to win the farm vote.

“I’ve lost so much money under him it’s really a crime, and COVID really took another chunk out of me, but I’m voting for Trump because I’m worried about the country,” said Tim Burrack, who grows corn and soybeans on a 2,000-acre farm outside Arlington, Iowa. The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch tells us why here.

Shared concerns: “You got to decide whether you support Trump’s trade policies or you don’t. I don’t, so I didn’t vote for him because of trade, I voted for him for the bigger picture,” he said.

  • Daryl Haack, a corn and soybean farmer near Primghar, Iowa, echoed the sentiment. Haack said his personal views on abortion and socialism — not farming — drove him to vote for Trump. 
  • And while he was hurt by the trade war, he said he felt it was necessary to counter China.

“I think most farmers realize that needed to happen. China was taking and still is taking advantage of us,” said Haack, who also voted for Trump in 2016.

Electoral danger: 

LEADING THE DAY

Pelosi says Democrats would fast-track ObamaCare, COVID-19 aid next year: Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiDemocrats poised for House gains with boost from Trump-won districts America divided? Not on everything On The Money: McConnell says Congress will take up stimulus package at start of 2021 | Lawmakers see better prospects for COVID deal after election MORE (D-Calif.) said Monday that, given control of both chambers of Congress next year, Democrats intend to fast-track legislation to strengthen ObamaCare and provide coronavirus relief.

To do so, they would lean on a special budget procedure, known as reconciliation, that empowers the majority party in the Senate to move legislation with just a simple majority — a move that would erase the minority party’s filibuster powers. The Hill’s Mike Lillis explains here.

Dow closes up more than 400 points on eve of Election Day: Stocks notched major gains Monday, rallying on the eve of Election Day after suffering their worst week of losses since March.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a gain of 423 points Monday, rising 1.6 percent. The Nasdaq composite rose more than 0.4 percent, and the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent.

The market’s strong open, one day before the elections, comes after stocks suffered their steepest five-day slide since the crash in March. The Dow ended October with a 4.6 percent loss, while the S&P fell 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq fell 2.3 percent last month, according to CNBC.

Uncertainty ahead: Monday’s rally begins what could be another turbulent week for financial markets with the results of the election, a Federal Reserve meeting and the release of the October jobs report all holding the potential to shake up Wall Street. I have more on a turbulent week ahead for the markets here.

Key manufacturing index at highest level in two years: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew to its highest level in two years in October, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said in a report issued Monday.

ISM’s manufacturing index rose in October to 59.3 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the previous month and the highest level since September 2018. 

October was the sixth month in a row in which the index showed an expansion in the overall economy, following a contraction in April at the start of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States, ISM said. The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda breaks it down here.

GOOD TO KNOW

  • President Trump is leaning on the legacy of the strong economy that spanned most of his first term in hopes that it will overshadow the devastation wrought on millions of Americans by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • There are at least 30 tax- and revenue-related measures on the ballot in 16 states across the country, sparking fights over property taxes, income taxes and excise taxes.
  • New York Times: “The Quiet Architect of Biden’s Plan to Rescue the Economy”
  • A lawsuit filed against real estate firm Redfin alleges that the company’s minimum home price policy discriminates against those living in communities of color in many metropolitan areas.